Ten years after the UK entered into a hasty public vote that split the nation and caused chaos, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly fraught and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Stir Debate
The team have examined the political, economic and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue this point is looming, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in universities but very few politicians or advocates are willing to participate with the basics. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, none of the commentators advocates unity or the existing arrangement. Both composes two articles that seek neutrality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling economic and societal figures, previous instances and constitutional models.
Debates cover flags and symbols, duties, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and encourage dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," stated the writer. "Debate suggests an recognition of the concept that there could be good arguments on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters report they favour unification but oppose increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his era is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a incompetent official who states: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, justified perspectives, he stated. "One side will succeed here and the other side will in the end be defeated but all factions has got important lessons to gain from the alternative arguments."
Call for Broader Discussion
Westminster must join the debate, said O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."
